2017 Wells Fargo Championship DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings
The Valero was not a great tournament for us, as Luke List was just abysmal on Friday. Thankfully, we had a week off to recoup, and this field looks much more appetizing from a fantasy perspective. We’ll go into specifics into why this will be an interesting week, but let’s reflect on Valero.
Let’s check in with our top 10 from last week to see how they did:
List – MC / Steele – T62 / Hoffman – T40 / Schneiderjans – T18 / Finau – T3 / Kirk – MC / Bradley – MC / Horschel – MC / Kim – MC / Cink – T22
Typically, we’re seeing no more than one more golfer miss the cut each week, but to see half of our top 10, including our top overall play miss the cut is something that we are going to work to address. It’s important to remember that each course has it’s own specific stats that tend to play well to the course. I am confident that this week, even though we will be dealing with a new course.
Like I said above, this is not at the events typical course. Quail Hollow is the typical course for this event, but as a result of the course hosting the PGA Championship, Eagle Point Golf Club will be filling in as the host. I am not very familiar with this course, so to really save the time trying to pretend like I do, and lack of time to sufficiently research, I’ll drop in this link to something Pat Mayo wrote about the course, which I think does an excellent job breaking down exactly what we can look forward to on this course. I don’t think you want to throw course history out, but I would certainly downgrade your overall weighting of things.
This week we will go back to listing out our top 6 golfers for the week, according to our PGA model, which I promise, will be coming soon to ResearchFantasy!
Dustin Johnson (20500/11500/13000) – Shock! Awe! Yeah, it’s not tough to believe that in a statistical model that Dustin Johnson would pop out. He’s the clear class of this field, and the only real concern here is his back. He attempted to play in The Master’s, and while he could have been in a ton of pain and still try to play, the fact that he wasn’t an immediate withdraw is important. He’s had a few weeks off now, and I would have to believe that he’s in a strong position for this tournament. He’s top 10 in all of our key stats, except for SG; Putting, where he is still high at 28.
Jon Rahm (18200/10500/11000) – Shock! Awe! Even if it is a little less shock and awe, it should be no surprise that Rahm is a pretty close #2 to DJ this weekend. I’ll go out on a limb, albeit not a big one, but I am picking Rahm to take this one down. I would love to see a little bit of a rivalry develop between Rahm and DJ as they are two of the best on tour. He’s top 10 in most of our key stats, except for Par 5 Scoring Birdie or Better where he is 23rd and SG: Putting where he is 48th. It is downright scary how similar his skill set looks to Johnson right now.
Francesco Molinari (15300/8300/9200) – Molinari is the first one of the bunch that strays away from just listing guys in order of their pricing. He’s 13th in odds on favorite to win the tournament, and he’s been in pretty solid form recently. He finished 17th in this tournament last year, his only appearance in it. He is 34th or better in all of our key stats on this course, except for, you guessed it, SG: Putting, where he finished 68th. All things considered, his play and his stats indicate that he should be able to contend in this tournament.
Daniel Berger (16300/8500/8300) – Daniel Berger is a borderline value play on DraftKings based on his pricing and where I would expect him to finish. His recent form is excellent, and without specific course history and knowing how this will play, that goes a long way for me. He’s actually #2 in recent form, which says so, so much. He’s 77th or better in all of our key stats this week, and Vegas lists his as the fourth highest odds to take this down this week.
Lucas Glover (13900/6900/8600) – Lucas Glover has mixed results at this event. He finished in 8th last year, 28th the year before that and 27th in 2013. He also missed the cut in 2014 and 2012. So yeah, this course change might be a good thing for him. His course stats are all amazing, with the vast majority falling I the top ten, including 4th in Par 4 Scoring. His biggest weakness is, you guessed it again, putting. If he can put that together, he could end up having a pretty nice weekend.
Stewart Cink (12400/6700/6400) – Cink at this price is basically a freebie. Is he going to win? Highly doubtful. Will he make the cut? Highly likely. That’s more or less what you want at this price range. He had great history at this event, finishing 20th in 2015, 23rd in 2014 and 23rd in 2012. His key stats are all in line with what we want, with all of them finishing at 90th or above, including 43rd in putting, which a lot of others are really struggling with at this point. I think he’s a necessarily evil if you want to maximize your exposure to DJ and Rahm.
The One Guy Who is the Make or Break Player this Week:
Luke List: At the last tournament, I didn’t understand why Vegas or DFSers in general were on Brooks Koepka, so I had him here. Well, he decided to show up to play. Who didn’t show up to play? Luke List. He was royally aggravating. He’s missed two cuts in a row, and he’s prone to having these strings of missed cut events. He’s priced at a position though that, due to having some upside, will pull some people in. He pops at 8th in our model, but I’m extremely hesitant to give him too much ownership this week.
Overall Top 25
1 – Dustin Johnson
2 – Jon Rahm
3 – Francesco Molinari
4 – Daniel Berger
5 – Lucas Glover
6 – Stewart Cink
7 – Kevin Kisner
8 – Luke List
9 – Martin Laird
10 – William McGirt
11 – Paul Casey
12 – Wesley Bryan
13 – Hudson Swafford
14 – Adam Scott
15 – Shane Lowry
16 – Phil Mickelson
17 – Bud Cauley – NOTE: Cauley has withdrawn
18 – Brian Harman
19 – J.B. Holmes
20 – Pat Perez
21 – Graeme McDowell
22 – Webb Simpson
23 – Matt Jones
24 – Emiliano Grillo
25 – Cameron Smith – NOTE: Smith has withdrawn
Thanks for reading!