2017 US Open DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings
The FedEx St. Jude Invitational was an interesting event to say the least. I don’t know how/why I ended up with as much Chez Reavie as I did, but I am very happy.
Let’s check in with our top 10 from last week to see how they did:
Fowler – MC / Berger – Winner / Scott – T10 / Henley – MC / Molinari – T24 / Mickelson – 9 / Cink – T10 / Poultier – T31 / Uihlein – T78 / Horschel – T4
It was an interesting week for our top 10, which featured the winner, as well as four others who finished in the top ten. I mentioned in the article that Rickie could just as easily win as miss the cut here, and well, miss the cut he did. Russell Henley looked as bad as possible, but other than that, this was a really solid list.
The US Open is going to be held at Erin Hills in Wisconsin. No PGA event has been held here, though some of the field did play in an Amateur contest here in 2011. The event is Par 72 for the first time in quite some time, and the course can stretch as much as 7,800 yards depending on the conditions that day. I’m putting a lot of emphasis on putt, scrambling, event history and some other strokes gained stats. We can’t play the “he’s a course horse” game this week because of the lack of history on this course.
Dustin Johnson (19000/11200/12000) – This course and tournament sets up for DJ in a big way. Yes, he’s going to be immensely popular. I don’t think that is a situation that should really bother you. Out of the six stats I am looking at, he’s first or second in three of them. He’s top 55 in all of them. His last three appearances at the US Open resulted in a first, second and fourth place finish. He’s coming off a pretty bad missed cut the last time he played, but he’s been at Erin Hills for awhile now trying to get ready to defend his crown. He’s the odds on favorite to win, and a great place to start building.
Jon Rahm (16600/10400/10300) – Speaking of guys who are coming off a bad missed cut, we have to throw Jon Rahm in there. The stats say that he’s even or maybe even slightly better than Dustin Johnson in the areas that we are looking at. The price is lower than DJ, though not really by a ton. He’s not exactly someone that the average fan is looking past either – they have commercials running for this guy. You could probably end up making some DJ/Rahm lineups if you think that is what is going to come down to, because there is value everywhere.
Louis Oosthuizen (14600/8400/7400) – I expect Louie to be a top play this weekend. He’s got very strong history at the US Open, and if I am not mistaken, hasn’t missed a cut so far this year. He finishes as high as second at the Open two years ago, and has solid results outside of that as well. His stats and recent play all check out. To me, he’s kind of a no brain play at this price, especially on DraftKings. I imagine he’ll be in the upper 20% of ownership with the potential of even more.
Charl Schwartzel (14400/6800/7300) – Speaking of guys who look good, Schwartzel finally came through this past weekend. He looked very good at St. Jude, and I think we’ll see some of that carryover into this week. His strong putting and scrambling skills could end up coming through in a big way. These greens are said to be easily playable here, so I think you want to look for guys like Schwartzel. If he is able to get the ball on the green and within reasonable distance of the hole, they will go in.
Francesco Molinari (13300/7800/7000) – I considered putting Molinari as our “Make or Break” play, but someone else stands out even more. Molinari is a monster in three key stats: 4th in SG: Tee to Green, 13th in Par 5 Scoring and 2nd in SG: Approach. These are likely to be my three favorite stats of the bunch, though scrambling could play into things quite a bit. Here is why I am looking at those stats: he can get the ball into a playable position and he gaining tons of strokes in these areas. His putting has not been good (110th), but if the greens are as easy as people are saying they are, then he could be set up very well for a big weekend.
Billy Horschel (13400/6500/6700) – Horschel has been known to be a very streaky player – and it’s been a nice little streak that he’s been on. He has very strong past results at the US Open, and his only real weakness is Par 5 Scoring. I think he’ll be able to work around that, and while he might be a very long shot to succeed here, he can really help you move up quickly if he stays in the thick of it.
The One Guy Who is the Make or Break Player this Week:
Rickie Fowler: Rickie Fowler. Rickie Fowler missed the cut last week, at an event he could have very easily won. Well, very easily could have won if he didn’t miss the cut. How will that affect his ownership this week? My gut reaction is that it could be very little. Well, maybe except for the fact that Fowler has missed the cut at this event twice in a row. Before that, he finished 2nd, 10th and 10th. Clearly, he could do anything here. Literally, his range of outcomes are first to last. I love the risk, and I hope he sees lesser ownership than he should. Yes, I am afraid he could miss the cut, but I’ll take the chances.
Overall Top 25
1 – Dustin Johnson
2 – Jon Rahm
3 – Thomas Pieters
4 – Jordan Spieth
5 – Adam Scott
6 – Sergio Garcia
7 – Jason Day
8 – Louis Oothsiuzen
9 – Jason Dufner
10 – Brooks Koepka
11 – Rory McIlroy
12 – Justin Thomas
13 – Kevin Kisner
14 – Henrik Stenson
15 – Rickie Fowler
16 – Daniel Berger
17 – Charl Schwartzel
18 – Jamie Lovemark
19 – Francesco Molinari
20 – Matt Kuchar
21 – Hideki Matsuyama
22 – Billy Horschel
23 – Branden Grace
24 – Shane Lowry
25 – David Lingmerth
Thanks for reading!