2017 The Memorial Tournament DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings
Last week was a very good week to be certain with a lot of our golfers seeing a lot of success. Hopefully we can carry things over to this week in what is a stacked field at The Memorial Invitational about two hours from where I sit.
Let’s check in with our top 10 from last week to see how they did:
Rahm – T2 / Spieth – T2 / Hadwin – T53 / Garcia – T12 / Dufner – MC / Snedeker – T48 / Simpson – 5 / Kirk – T67 / Finau – T29 / Leishman – T34
For what it is worth, the winner of the tournament, Kevin Kisner, came in as our 11th ranked golfer last week. The winner, two top 2’s, a fifth and a 12th isn’t horrible for eleven golfers. The only downside was Jason Dufner, who was just as bad as could be. Hopefully things carry over for this week.
The Memorial Invitational is played at the Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. It’s a Par 72 that plays 7,392 yards, which is fairly long. Even though it’s a stat I use every week, Tee to Green is something that has been a strong indicator of success on this course. There are also four Par 5’s on this course. One thing to note is that these fairways sit wide, so the emphasis is really not on accuracy this week, though it never hurts.
This week we will go back to listing out our top 6 golfers for the week, according to our PGA model.
Jon Rahm (18100/10800/11100) – It’s amazing that at this point in the year, Rahm has evened up with Dustin Johnson in terms of statistics. He’s even been playing better, even if it is every so slightly. Rahm ranks high in all of our key stats, including number 2 in SG: Tee to Green. He hasn’t met a course he cannot dominate, and even though he’s going to be popular, there is a ton of value on the slate to make it work. Behind DJ, he’s one of the top favorites to win this thing. If it isn’t this week that it will happen, it will be soon.
Patrick Cantlay (15000/6600/7800) – Speaking of value plays, that’s where I would put Cantlay this weekend. He’s been awesome this year, and he represents one of many value golfers that are in a very good spot. He is one of the better putters on tour, and if this comes down to a situation where it’s needed, he certainly has an advantage on some of the others who aren’t as competent in this area. He hasn’t seen a ton of ownership thus far, but I could see that changing this week.
Dustin Johnson (19700/11800/12000) – There aren’t going to be many tournaments that DJ won’t be one of our top 6 golfers, unless things start to go downhill and fast. I just can’t see that happening right now. In four of the six key statistics I am considering this weekend, DJ is top 8. That is something that no one else can say, though a few others do come close. Aside from a missed cut in 2013, he’s been solid at this course, including finishing third last year and 13th in 2015. It’s never a bad idea to have some exposure.
Jordan Spieth (18100/10000/11000) – Spieth is a fun guy to have in your lineups right now. Last week, I listed him as a make or break player because of how bad he had been the previous two tournaments. I mentioned it would be worth going back to the well on him and it sure was worth it. He checks out in all of the course specific stats, but has a checkered history here. Sure, he hasn’t missed any cuts in the last five years, but if you are paying for him, you don’t want 30th place finishes. I’m not going to jump off the train for that, though.
Tony Finau (15300/8600/7900) – Finau has been playing some solid golf as of late, and sees a nice price drop this week as he comes into a tournament that he’s had good results in over the last two years, with an 11th and 8th place finish. The stats back it up, as well. The biggest issue with him is his putter. If he’s on, he could very well end up winning this tournament. If he’s not, it might be a rough weekend for his owners. I think he’ll make the cut and be there on the weekend as this ticks down.
Stewart Cink (12900/6600/7000) – I could be using the wrong stats, but they check out with others across the industry, so I don’t think I’m too off. I say that because in terms of our six core stats, Cink finishes above 37th in all of them. There is no one else, period, in this field who looks to match up with this course as well as Cink does. His experience at this course has been solid. Despite not appearing here last year, he finished 31st, 49th, 29th and 25th respectively in the prior four years. His recent form has been solid, and quite frankly, I cannot make up a reason to not consider him this weekend.
The One Guy Who is the Make or Break Player this Week:
Rickie Fowler: I was tempted to go Jason Day here, because his history is not great and the stats just don’t line up at all for him. However, there isn’t much chatter on him. There is a ton of chatter on Fowler, whose stats line up extremely well at this course, with five of six being 30th or better. That’s why it is tough to understand why he’s missed three straight cuts here, as well as having limited success the two previous years. I’m stuck on where his ownership will land, but something tells me it will be lower than it should be. I’m not going to go as heavy on him as some of the other guys on this list, but I’ll still have some exposure.
Overall Top 25
1 – Jon Rahm
2 – Patrick Cantlay
3 – Dustin Johnson
4 – Jordan Spieth
5 – Tony Finau
6 – Stewart Cink
7 –Marc Leishman
8 – Adam Hadwin
10 – Matt Kuchar
11 – Bill Haas
12 – Graham DeLaet
13 –Byeong-Hun An
14 – Kevin Kisner
15 – Rickie Fowler
16 – Billy Horschel
17 – Lucas Glover
18 – Brendan Steele
19 – Adam Scott
20 – Emiliano Grillo
21 – Kyle Stanley
22 – Gary Woodland
23 – Steve Stricker
24 – Brian Harman
25 – Jason Dufner
Thanks for reading!