2017 PGA Championship DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings
The Bridgestone was one for the ages, with Hideki Matsuyama playing out of his mind down the stretch. That bodes very well for our model this week.
Let’s check in with our top 10 from last week to see how they did:
McIlroy – T5 / Spieth – T13 / Casey – T5 / Chappell – T13 / Berger – T17 / Scott – T13 / Leishman – T41 / Grace – T28 / Koepka – T17 / Johnson – T17
All of our golfers made the cut (hahaha, see what I did there? It was a no cut event). It was solid, but I do wish I would have gotten more. Not having Matsuyama obviously hurt our week as a whole.
This is the last major of the 2017 season as the PGA rolls into Quail Hollow this week. The course is a long 7600 yard course that typically plays as a Par 72, but will add an additional Par 5 turning it into a Par 71. I am emphasizing past performance, SG: Tee to Green and SG: Off the Tee as some of my main stats this week. I am basing this off the last 12 rounds of play, so you will see some more recently successful golfers make this list. If you are a believer in recent play, that type of mentality will likely work for you.
Hideki Matsuyama (16900/8800/10500) – Matsuyama was putting on a clinic last week, so it is not shocking that we see him pop up as our top overall play this week. I would not be shocked to his see his strong play continue, and he has all the tools to get it done again this week. He is second in Par 5 scoring and third in Tee to Green, and I fully expect him to dominate the field once again this week.
Paul Casey (14700/7600/7800) – Fifth in Par 4 scoring and second in Bogey Avoidance, Casey looks to turn his strong showing last week into another one this week. He is coming off a top ten at this event last year, and could easily do it again this year. At his price, he is very likely to be a popular play again this week.
Jason Day (16500/9100/10400) – Aside from missing the cut in 2012, Day has been in the top 15 in all the subsequent events, including a second place last year and winning the event the year before. A lot is given to Rory for how well he plays here, but Day is right up there with him. He is fifth in Bogey or Better % over his last twelve rounds, and I could see a good week coming from him.
Tony Finau (13100/7000/7000) – Over his last 12 rounds, Finau is first in Par 5 scoring, and third in both Bogey Avoidance and Off the Tee. He will probably be a highly owned play because he always hangs around, or at least this year. Perhaps the missed cut last year will pull people off of him, but even if they go heavy on him, I will too. This is a great spot for him.
Jordan Spieth (19200/10200/12000) – Spieth’s finishes in his last 4: 13/2/MC/MC at this event. He was not at his best last week, that is to be sure, but he profiles very well for this event here. He is first in Tee to Green, as well as second in both Par 4 Scoring and Birdie or Better%. Because of Rory’s proclivity at this course, Spieth could go somewhat underowned, making him a strong tournament option.
Charley Hoffman (13600/6500/7600) – In his last five trips here, Hoffman has four missed cuts and a 30th. That really does not give one much excitement in putting him in your roster. However, his recent form is amazing. Aside for Bogey Avoidance, Hoffman is top 7 in our other five remaining stats, including first in Birdie or Better % and second in Par 4 scoring. I am willing to take a chance on him playing this well.
The One Guy Who is the Make or Break Player this Week:
Rory McIlroy: No one wanted to play Rory at the British Open or at Bridgestone, but they sure will this week! He has a strong history here and is playing really strong golf right now. I do want to be underweight on Rory for the first time in the last two weeks, and there are some good guys to pivot to. He could win here, but if he does not have a top 5, it is going to be tough to make good money with him in your lineup.
Overall Top 25
1 – Hideki Matsuyama
2 – Paul Casey
3 – Jason Day
4 – Tony Finau
5 – Jordan Spieth
6 – Charles Hoffman
7 – Rory McIlroy
8 – Francesco Molinari
9 – Xander Schauffele
10 – Keegan Bradley
11 – Adam Scott
12 – Brooks Koepka
13 – Charl Schwartzl
14 – Jhonnaton Vegas
15 – Daniel Berger
16 – Jason Dufner
17 – Jamie Lovemark
18 – David Lingmerth
19 – Russell Knox
20 – Zach Johnson
21 – Rickie Fowler
22 – Kyle Stanley
23 – Phil Mickelson
24 – Danny Lee
25 – Matt Kuchar
Thanks for reading!