2017 Masters DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings
Alright, we are back and ready to talk some Master’s! I know this is one of the top tournaments of the year in all sports, so all sites have really been amping up the contest offerings for the week.
Let’s check in with our top 6 from last week to see how they did:
Spieth: MC / Fowler: T3 / Finau: T34 / Holmes: MC / Berger: 5 / Henley: Winner
So all things considered, the missed cuts were bad, but these picks did a whole hell of a lot better than a lot of other picks around the industry. I was happy with our model for the third week in a row.
The Master’s is a tough pill to swallow, in terms of hashing out where you really want to look for your golfers. This course is one that I will heavily rely on course history, but I won’t discount newcomers just because they haven’t played here before. For this course, aside from history and recent form, I am going to be overweight on golfers with Driving Distance and Greens in Regulation %. Secondary to that, I will be looking at things like Bogey Avoidance, Birdie Leaders, Par 5 Scoring, Around the Green and Approaching the Green. That’s far more stats than I usually bring into the fold in our model [which I will make available for free this week at ResearchFantasy].
Last week, I gave the top 6 options based off our model, but I can’t do that this week because basically the top 6 are in the top 10. I’m going to cherry pick a little, give you our full top 25, and then mention one guy who I think is going to be a make or break option this week.
Dustin Johnson (21900/11000/11300) – It’s going to be interesting to see how the ownership comes together on the top 3. By looking at the ownerships over the last few weeks, it seems as if people are really honing in on the game theory end of things, which often times leads to inadvertent low ownership of what should be the chalk plays. I think the top three will all have high ownerships this week. In terms of my favorite, I am going to have to side with DJ here. I usually have 5 stats, including recent form, when I build my models, but this week I used 8. Johnson is in the top ten in all 8, top 5 in 6 and first in three of them. I mean, it’s really hard to avoid using him this week, and something tells me he’s going to be leaving with a new jacket.
Rory McIlroy (21600/10400/10600) – Rory comes in as our second ranked play this weekend. For what it is worth, Jordan Spieth ranks as our fourth. Rory doesn’t have the stellar stats pertinent to this course like Johnson does, but he’s really close. The one weakness we see in his statistics would be Around the Green, where he just isn’t very good. I am not going to hold that against him, because Augusta isn’t going to hold that against him if he’s doing it well through the week. He’s got three consecutive top 10 places in this tournament, and because he hasn’t seen the success Rory as [but c’mon, this isn’t too far off], he may be a little bit lowered owned. It won’t be by much, though.
Justin Rose (18300/9500/9200) – I think Justin Rose is a lock for both my cash game and tournament lineups this weekend. I cannot stress enough that it is going to be important for all of your golfers to make it to the weekend or else it is highly unlikely that you will cash. Rose has an impeccable history at this course over the past five years, going no lower than 25th, and posting three top 10’s during that time, including 10th in 2016 and 2nd in 2015. He’s very solid at this course, and even though his recent form isn’t great, neither was Russell Henley’s going into the tournament last weekend. I would not be shocked to see him win here.
Adam Scott (18500/9700/8800) – Adam Scott fits a lot of the same description as Rose above. His stats are eerily similar this season to Rose, and as well, hasn’t really been in the greatest form as of late. His course history hasn’t been as consistent as Rose, but he does have a jacket, winning here in 2013. The price on him is very nice, and I don’t mind using him in any formats, as he is highly likely to make the cut line and could contend if he is able to get things going.
Paul Casey (16600/8300/7800) – After missing the cut in 2012 and taking a two-year hiatus from Augusta, Paul Casey has come back like a man possessed. He’s finished 4th and 6th here in the past two years. His stats for the course lineup really well for someone who could very well contend for the jacket, and his price is really cheap, especially on DraftKings. I would consider him to be one of the more highly owned players on the slate, but with good reason. I can see him posting a really strong score.
Jhonattan Vegas (13300/5300/6700) – Vegas is one of the new comers to this tournament – but not the one you thought you’d see here. I think this is a great time to pivot and save a ton of money in the process. If you look at his stats, he’s ranked between 26th-80th, which most of them falling in the 40’s. That’s really good for someone at this price. There aren’t going to be a ton of guys I look at under this $7k mark, but Vegas looks like he could at least be worth a look this weekend.
The One Guy Who is the Make or Break Player this Week:
Jon Rahm: Last week, it was Tony Finau, and what a rush he was. He finished the second day at even, 12 spots away from the cut line. Well, everyone who played after he finished was awful, and he moved above the cut line. Thank goodness too – I had him at 100%. Jon Rahm is going to be that guy this week. He’s been playing very well, is priced way too cheap for what he’s been doing. That will lead to a ton of ownership this weekend. I wouldn’t be shocked if it came close to 35-40%. Finau was near 30% in the tournaments I was in. Just because he’s playing well doesn’t mean that will continue. If he is highly owned and he doesn’t make it, the lineups without him will be in a strong position for the rest of the event.
Overall Top 25
1 – Dustin Johnson
2 – Rory McIlroy
3 – Hideki Matsuyama
4 – Jordan Spieth
5 – Rickie Fowler
6 – Sergio Garcia
7 – Justin Thomas
8 – Justin Rose
9 – Russell Henley
10 – Ross Fisher
11 – Paul Casey
12 – Jon Rahm
13 – Bill Haas
14 – Daniel Berger
15 – Gary Woodland
16 – Adam Scott
17 – Brandan Steele
18 – Shane Lowry
19 – Louis Oosthuizen
20 – Jason Day
21 – Marc Leishman
22 – Hudson Swafford
23 – Emiliano Grillo
24 – Adam Hadwin
25 – Jhonattan Vegas
Thanks for reading!