2017 John Deere Classic DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings
The Greenbriar Classic was a really fun event, and it was great to see Xander Schauffele get the win. Even though some bigger named golfers couldn’t make it over the cut line, which happens every week, I hope these picks helped you make it out on the right side of the money.
Let’s check in with our top 10 from last week to see how they did:
Cink – T58 / Mickelson – T20 / DeLaet – T20 / Henley – T5 / Finau – T7 / Kisner – MC / Lee – T9 / Lingmerth – T64 / Howell III – T45 / Reed – T20
Not really a bad week considering we only managed to have one missed cut and three of the 10 golfers were in our top 10. Schauffele came in as our 12th ranked golfer, so we are certainly getting things done with our projections. Even though Kisner missed the cut, I didn’t end up having too much of him based on his price and how others priced around him intrigued me more.
This weeks tournament will send us to Illinois to the TPC Deere Run course in Silvis. The course is a Par 71, 7,268 yard course that should yield very high scoring. The course typically plays the same year in and year out. While that might cause some to look toward past performance here, I would prefer to look at the stats that have success at the course and find golfers that fit that profile. I think irons and wedges should play more here, and I think you can get away with not being a great putter, which is going to benefit several golfers this week who excel in all other areas but. It’s also worth noting that this is a very weak field, as it is right before The Open Championship. I am not overly concerned about golfers pulling out, and the inverse of a plus week here could push someone into that Open field. Don’t be shocked if this week is very top heavy and I’ll be surprised to see a repeat of what happened last week with Munoz coming out of nowhere.
Daniel Berger (17900/9900/11300) – Like I just got through saying, it shouldn’t surprise you to see some higher priced picks land here as our favorite plays. It’s not always that way: last week Stewart Cink came in as our top overall play in our model. This week, top priced and most fit Daniel Berger checks in. His stats are absurd for this course, as they all come in between 16-39, including recent form. In my opinion, he’s the guy that you put into your cash games and tournaments and begin building around him.
Kyle Stanley (16600/8400/9600) – The last time we saw Kyle Stanley, he was en route to winning a tournament that felt like it was a long time coming. Now he’s here at the John Deere Classic in a weak field where it isn’t out of the question that he could do it again. I’m not really holding the putting stats against him, but he’s top 10 in 3 of the six course stats that I’m considering this week, which are Greens in Regulation, SG: Tee to Green and SG: Approach. It wouldn’t shock me to see him crack another top 10 this weekend.
Charles Howell III (15900/7700/9000) – Howell III has the same woes as Stanley does with the putter, but has a little bit of a different profile. He too ranks top 12 for three different stats, though his are Par 4 Scoring, Par 5 Scoring and Greens in Regulation. The price is certainly more than we are comfortable with, but with this being such a weak field, I would tend to shrug it off and be willing to play him in my tournament line ups.
Kevin Kisner (16600/9600/10400) – Kevin Kisner was definitely a heartbreaker last week, being the one top guy who just couldn’t get over the cut line. He’s back in a much weaker field (and that is saying something, as last week wasn’t anything to write home about either), and all his stats are 75th or better. He hasn’t had great success in his last 3 trips here, with a 35th, 20th and missed cut. If I am paying up that high, to be quite honest, I expect more than that, but I think on a whole he’s in a better position to produce this year.
Jamie Lovemark (16000/7900/9300) – Lovemark has been playing excellent golf as of late, and fits a similar profile to both Howell III and Stanley: no putting, but everything else is aces. He’s 8th in Par 4 Scoring and top 65 in everything outside of putting. He’s coming off a great showing at The Greenbriar Classic last week, and I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see him pull through with another top 10 this week.
Chad Campbell (14700/6600/7600) – Though he didn’t golf at last year’s event, his past four finishes are 28th, 13th, 15th and 36th. If that is what we get for this price, I will end up being very satisfied. Yet again, he’s another guy who struggles putting, but everything else checks out very nicely. He’s 45th or better in the remaining five stats this week, and I just don’t think he’s someone that people like to play. These types of tournaments is where he tends to have success, and I think he makes an excellent tournament option this week.
The One Guy Who is the Make or Break Player this Week:
Curtis Luck: Slowly but surely, Curtis Luck is starting to look better and better. Last week proved to be another strong showing, and with him playing this well and in a poor field, I could see him finishing in the top 10 this week. He’s priced at $7,100 which feels way too low, and he’s someone that will certainly make or break me, as I will have a lot of him.
Overall Top 25
1 – Daniel Berger
2 – Kyle Stanley
3 – Charles Howell III
4 – Kevin Kisner
5 – Jamie Lovemark
6 – Chad Campbell
7 – Danny Lee
8 – Charley Hoffman
9 – Luke List
10 – Bud Cauley
11 – Curtis Luck
12 – Lucas Glover
13 – Chez Reavie
14 – Ryan Moore
15 – Bryce Molder
16 – Kevin Na
17 – Steve Striker
18 – Harold Varner III
19 – Kevin Streelman
20 – Michael Kim
21 – Robert Garrigus
22 – Nick Taylor
23 – Brian Harman
24 – Boo Weekley
25 – Kevin Tway
Thanks for reading!