2017 Dean & Deluca Invitational DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings
This weekend at the Byron Nelson was another interesting week. The season really started off with a lot of chalk options hitting and placing high, but how things have changed. Coming off four straight missed cuts, Billy Horschel won the thing. He’s known to be a streaky player, so I am interested to see how our model builds him this week.
Let’s check in with our top 10 from last week to see how they did:
Johnson – T13 / Finau – T13 / Spieth – MC*/ Henley – MC / DeLaet – MC / Garcia – T20 / Kang – T20 / Dufner – T13 / Leishman – T13 / Swafford – MC
I asterisked Spieth because even though he was third in our rankings for the week, I did mention I was not going to be playing him. Overall, I know Henley and DeLaet hurt a lot of people, and Swafford is yet another guy who showed well in our model but couldn’t cut the mustard.
The DEAN & DELUCA Invitational is held at the Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth Texas. It is a Par 70 7,209-yard course. This is one of the courses that it is said that course history makes a bigger difference when looking for potential plays. Holes 3-5 on this course have been labeled “The Horrible Horseshoe”. It has been a major shortcoming for many golfers, so don’t be shocked if your golfers have a rough time. IF they don’t, there is a good chance there will be a positive impact on your lineup.
This week we will go back to listing out our top 6 golfers for the week, according to our PGA model.
Jon Rahm (18400/NA/11800) – Rahm is coming off what is his worst finish of the year at The Players where he missed the secondary cut. With no Dustin Johnson on the entry list, Rahm is the next best golfer in most of the stats that we are looking at for this course, and his recent form [aside from The Players], has been amongst the best in golf. He’s performed well thus far on courses where he doesn’t have any background, so lack of history here isn’t something I am too concerned with. I have no issues using him.
Adam Hadwin (15800/NA/8400) – Hadwin is priced right now at a very nice price, and his course history, as well as his play this year, will likely make him a very highly owned option. There has been a lot of chatter on him in a lot of DFS circles, so I think his ownership will likely be over 20% owned. The course specific stats are also worth mentioning, where he comes in at no lower than 63rd. He’s someone I think you can use in either format.
Sergio Garcia (18000/NA/10800) – Sergio has been on a bit of a Master’s hangover, but I think he could potentially come out of it this week. He had a 13th here in 2012, and has not been back since. The numbers line up well for him, including a 3rd ranking in SG: Tee to Green and 6th in Greens in Regulation. Rahm and Spieth being priced above him could drop his ownership somewhat, especially considering his results as of late.
Jason Dufner (16700/NA/9000) – Dufner is the odds on favorite for many DFS and golf experts to win this year. He’s shown excellent at this course in the past, including dual second place finishes in 2014 and 2012. He does have finishes in the 40’s in 2015 and 2013, but then finished 6th last year. All things considered, he stands a very good chance at having a strong showing here.
Brandt Snedeker (15600/NA/8100) – Snedeker might not end up being very highly owned, which will make me happy. He’s got some solid finishes here over the last three years, including a 2nd in 2015. His course stats are all 81st or better, and his recent form has him ranked at 49th. The price on DraftKings especially is very tempting, and I can see myself building a ton of lineups with him this week.
Chris Kirk (15500/NA/8200) – Chris Kirk LOVES this course. Four of his last five visits here resulted in top 15 finishes, while his other finish was totally acceptable at 35th. If he manages to do what he has done in the past, he will make for another solid play on this slate. His recent form is lacking, but all of the course specific stats make sense this week. I don’t think I’ll use him in my cash games, but he is a high upside tournament option.
The One Guy Who is the Make or Break Player this Week:
Jordan Spieth: For what it is worth, Spieth comes in as our 2nd ranked golfer this week, but I intentionally left him off the list. He’s going to be an interesting case this week, as a result of an awful recent run where he’s missed 3 of 4 cuts, including the Byron Nelson last week. He’s had ridiculous success here in the past, including winning last year and finishing second the year before that. His stats all stack up for this course, and I just can’t imagine him falling off for a third week in a row. This is the week that I, as well as many others, will be back on Spieth.
Overall Top 25
1 – Jon Rahm
2 – Jordan Spieth
3 – Adam Hadwin
4 – Sergio Garcia
5 – Jason Dufner
6 – Brandt Snedeker
7 – Webb Simpson
8 – Chris Kirk
9 – Tony Finau
10 – Marc Leishman
11 – Kevin Kisner
12 – Billy Horschel
13 – Pat Perez
14 – William McGirt
15 – BrGraham DeLaet
17 – Matt Kuchar
18 – Paul Casey
19 – Emiliano Grillo
20 – Zach Johnson
21 – Ryan Moore
22 – Bill Haas
23 – Bud Cauley
24 – Phil Mickelson
25 – Charley Hoffman
Thanks for reading!