2017 British Open DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings
The John Deere Classic was a fun tournament to watch, as it was very high (low?) scoring and we got a shocker with Bryson DeChambeau picking up the win. I wish I had more than 10% exposure to him, but it is what it is.
Let’s check in with our top 10 from last week to see how they did:
Berger – T5 / Stanley – T55 / Howell III – T19 / Kisner – T44 / Lovemark – T25 / Campbell – T12 / Lee – WD / Hoffman – T39 / List – T68 / Cauley – T12
It was good to see that no one on this list missed the cut (though Lee likely would have), but all things considered, you needed far more than what these guys brought to the table to get the job done. Still, it was a plus week in the winnings column, so as long as that can be the consistent, we will be in good shape.
The (British) Open Championship will be held at Royal Birkdale Golf Course, which is a 7156 yard par 70 course. As with a lot of the major championships, the course changes each year, and it has been nearly 10 years since this event was played here. Some of the key stats we are looking at this week are Par 4’s 450-500 yards and scrambling, among others. It is highly likely to be a very low scoring event, and pars can mean the world here. We want to find guys who are good at avoiding bogeys as well. This should be a fun event, so lets get on to the picks.
Daniel Berger (13400/7100/6700) – With all the names in the field, I certainly did not expect Berger to be ranked as our top golfer. Let’s get the negatives out of the way: he hasn’t fared well in opens in the past few years in England. He’s missed the cut both times, but it’s hard to want to play against him, considering that he’s been doing so well. Over his last 12 rounds of golf, Berger is no worse than 32nd in our key stats (scrambling) and is third in DraftKings points scored during that time. Granted, this was in weaker fields, but I think he’s someone who is going to go overlooked this week. Do I think he’ll win? Probably not, but I would expect him to exceed his value.
Jordan Spieth (18000/10100/11600) – Call me crazy, but Spieth was the first guy I looked toward in this field. I do think that it is going to be a common strategy to spend down this week, when you have the liked of Fowler/Matsuyama/Mickelson two thousand cheaper, but all things considered, Spieth is a great play. He’s had middling success at this tournament, with a high of 4th in 2015. He too has a weakness with scrambling, but he checks out favorably with everything else. I have no qualms with using him in either format, and think he should see lower ownership.
Rory McIlroy(18000/9800/11000) – I’ve heard a lot of anti-Rory talk thus far in the early part of the week, and I think it’s somewhat unfounded. His history has been fair here, but I think it could be somewhat weather dependent. If it looks like it will be calm when he is playing, he’s going to be tough to beat. If the weather is more complicated, he could struggle. He’s had solid success at The Open, and I think he’ll be another golfer that will face lower ownership than he should. I’m not betting against him this week.
Paul Casey (15500/7800/8100) – Casey is going to be an interesting story this week. To start, his results here in the past 5 years have been extremely poor. Even for $8100, if he finishes at his high of 47th, you aren’t going to be overly satisfied. Could he have found the turning point this year? The stats say that he might have. In his past 12 rounds, he’s sitting at 5th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards and 51st in Par 5. That’s really not all that bad of a range. I think the ownership will be pretty high for him, making him a risky prospect this weekend.
Rickie Fowler (16800/9600/9200) – Rickie has been solid but unspectacular in past visits at this tournament, but he really has a lot of hype going into this one. He finished 2nd in 2014, and has a few finishes in the 30’s and 40’s in between a missed cut. Rickie’s worst stat is 56th in SG:Tee to Green over the last 12 rounds, but outside of that falls in the top ten of everything we are looking at. Based on that fact alone, he will be worth a look in your lineups today.
Phil Mickelson (15700/7600/8700) – Lefty will be the last golfer in our picks this week. He’s been solid at this tournament, including winning in 2013. He hasn’t missed a cut yet this year, and is in good form going into this event. Based on just past play alone, he is someone we can justify putting into our lineups, and I love the price point on him across the industry. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him win.
The One Guy Who is the Make or Break Player this Week:
Tommy Fleetwood: I don’t know why they are even playing this weekend, because Fleetwood has already won. At least that is what the internet has said. He’s called this is home course, so there is an expect advantage to be held for him, but will that really translate? His ownership is likely to be very high, and with all of the recent chalk bombs, I’m inclined to just stay away this week. His stats show him as our 28th top play this week, but I am inclined to just stay away.
Overall Top 25
1 – Daniel Berger
2 – Jordan Spieth
3 – Rory McIlroy
4 – Paul Casey
5 – Rickie Fowler
6 – Phil Mickelson
7 – Matt Kuchar
8 – Marc Leishman
9 – Tony Finau
10 – Thomas Pieters
11 – Bryson DeChambeau
12 – Louis Oothsuizen
13 – Bill Haas
14 – Adam Scott
15 – Francesco Molinari
16 – Hideki Matsuyama
17 – Xander Schauffele
18 – Branden Grace
19 – Jason Dufner
20 – Jon Rahm
21 – Sergio Garcia
22 – Ian Poultier
23 – Kyle Stanley
24 – Jason Day
25 – Jamie Lovemark
Thanks for reading!