2017 Bridgestone Invitational DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings
The RBC Canadian Open was won for the second straight year by Jhonattan Vegas. Good on him for that. I do not see him repeating the win this week however. The field this week resembles that of what we see in the big tournaments, despite being about 70 names short.
Let’s check in with our top 10 from last week to see how they did:
Lee – T32 / Reavie – T23 / Cantlay – T48 / Kuchar – T32 / English – MC / Finau – T5 / Johnson – T8 / Campbell – T32 / Lowry – MC / Summerhayes – T42
The two missed cuts sucked, especially English since I was high on him, he did not have high ownership, and actually played well on Friday. Unfortunately, with such a high scoring event, the return to form did not go far enough to make a substantial difference. This was the first week in awhile where we did not have the winner in the top ten, and he did not even appear in the top 25. He just really, really likes that course.
This is going to be an interesting week for sure, as the Bridgestone played at Firestone Country Club is a tough, long course. It plays as a par 70, 7,400 yard course, which is super long. Both the greens and fairways are very hard to hit, and this course has been known to benefit guys who can drive deep. Furthermore, this course has 8ish 450-500 yard Par 4’s. The past has shown that those who are able to play those Par 4’s well tend to have a great deal of success at this course, so needless to say, that will be one of our key stats this week. This is a no cut event, so it makes the perfect practice spot prior to the next Major.
Rory McIlroy (18500/9600/11400) – This is a great spot for Rory. Not only does he fit this course pretty well, but those in the DFS industry just do not seem to be on him right now. At the British Open, he was lower than 7% owned in a lot of the tournaments I was in. I was heavy on him then, and I will be heavy on him against this weekend. His last time here, he won the event, and I do believe that course history is important. He is second in SG: Off the Tee, and I think as long as he is not wild off the tee, he should be able to put together a great weekend. I will take the (assumed) low ownership before it disappears.
Jordan Spieth (19000/9900/12000) – Remember how well DJ was playing to start the year? Well, that is where Spieth is at right now. He will probably carry close to the highest ownership this weekend, and with good cause. He has been incredible. That back nine at the end of the Open was crazy. Right now, Spieth is 3rd in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, which I believe will be a major bonus this week. You are not going to get the ownership on him like Rory, but should still use him as he could win this thing.
Paul Casey (15900/7600/9000) – I have heard Casey being talked up for this event, so it will not be much of a surprise if he carries high ownership this weekend. He has solid, but unspectacular results at this tournament, with a 16th, 17th and 27th in his last three starts. He does profile very well right now, though. He is fourth in Par 4 Scoring as we mentioned above with Spieth, and clocks in favorable in most of the other stats as well. I like his upside this weekend.
Kevin Chappell (14600/5700/7500) – Chappell is someone I have not heard a ton about this week, and with his price where it is at, I am very excited about that. He finished third here last year, and I think we could see a repeat of that again this year. He is 8th in Greens in Regulation, and top 20 in 4/5 stats for this tournament, with his only middle of the road stat being Bogey Avoidance, which I do think is important here. If he is able to reign that in, he could be in for a big weekend, and I am certainly willing to take some shots with him this weekend.
Daniel Berger (15400/6900/8300) – Berger withdrew last year, which would have been his only appearance here in five years. Other than that, he comes in with 4/6 stats in the top ten over his last 12 rounds. His best stat is third in SG: Tee to Green, which is another indicator for success at this course. I think he should be able to put together a great outing here, and is priced favorably for what his upside could be.
Adam Scott (16200/8200/8800) – Three top 15’s and two 45’s highlight Scott’s last five appearances here, so you can see that he is all over the place. Scott’s SG: Tee to Green has been 9th best over the last 12 rounds, and he has several stats that are within the top 20 of those going this weekend. His price is in a range that is likely to win someone a tournament this weekend if everything goes right for him. He is not my favorite play, but could certainly end up coming through this week.
The One Guy Who is the Make or Break Player this Week:
Jon Rahm: Based on the stats I am using this week, Rahm does not jump off the page as being someone that should see success here. This is one of those situations where you may want to use the eye test over the stats if you believe he will do well. A lot of people do believe that, and he has some good showings under his belt this year to back it up.
Overall Top 25
1 – Rory McIlroy
2 – Jordan Spieth
3 – Paul Casey
4 – Kevin Chappell
5 – Daniel Berger
6 – Adam Scott
7 – Marc Leishman
8 – Branden Grace
9 – Brooks Koepka
10 – Dustin Johnson
11 – Rickie Fowler
12 – Matt Kuchar
13 – Louis Oothsuizen
14 – Jason Day
15 – Zander Schauffele
16 – Thomas Pieters
17 – Jason Dufner
18 – Charley Hoffman
19 – Jon Rahm
20 – Phil Mickelson
21 – Hideki Matsuyama
22 – Alexander Noren
23 – Bryson DeChambeau
24 – Billy Horschel
25 – Kyle Stanley
Thanks for reading!